Every time I go on vacation, something weird and big-time newsworthy happens - the London bus bombing, the taking-out of Saddam Hussein's sons. This time (Friday afternoon) it was Gov. Sarah Palin announcing that, not only will she not run for re-election as Alaska's governor, but that she'll be stepping down at the end of July with almost two years remaining in her term.
There's been a good deal of speculation about why Palin is leaving now - big scandal? family problems? (I hope for the Palins' sake that neither of those are true.) Personally, I think Palin learned a great deal from running with Sen. McCain last year, and she doesn't see the point in toiling away and battling her legislature for another three years when she could be building her national profile (and making big bucks on appearances in the process). Surely Palin looks at Barack Obama - another young, charismatic regional politician who managed to overcome a relative lack of experience and win the presidency - and asks herself, why not me?
I can see why she would think that. But the thing to remember is that Obama got incredibly lucky (luck = preparation + opportunity). His opponent in the 2004 Senate race self-destructed; his freshness landed him a huge platform at that year's Democratic convention, where he was pretty much the only bright spot; he had the fortune of being the new kid running against several establishment candidates in a year when many Americans couldn't wait to throw out the old guard. Palin could easily follow that path.
But she could also end up like John Edwards, another talented pol who jumped the gun but didn't get lucky (not the way I mean, at least). Rudy Giuliani was another one who stepped out of politics for a few years and then found that his ship had sailed. Every now and then you can get away with leaving the limelight for a time and then, at the right moment, making a comeback. I think that's what Newt Gingrich is trying to do now, for instance.
But what this situation reminds me of more than anything is Richard Nixon's trajectory. He dutifully climbed the ladder up the legislature to vice president, then just barely lost to JFK in 1960. After losing the California governor's election in 1964, Nixon announced that he was quitting politics for good. Like Palin, he was tired of being kicked around. But then four years later Nixon emerged as the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president. (Kind of like the Obama-Clinton primary battle, Nixon was almost tied with Ronald Reagan in the popular vote, but Nixon got more delegates.)
Palin would do well to study how Nixon did it. His timing was right - LBJ was almost as unpopular in 1968 as George W. Bush was last year - but he was also able to position himself as the more moderate Republican, the voice of the "silent majority" frustrated with rising crime, the war in Vietnam and those darn hippies. Reagan was the hard-right conservative... and Reagan lost. In the general election, George Wallace stepped in as a conservative third-party candidate, again allowing Nixon to appeal to the wide swath of voters in the middle.
So I'm not ready to write off Sarah Palin. I think she's capable of being an extraordinarily gifted politician, but she's got to do two things: a) grow a thicker skin (you think the Clintons didn't want to go off on Rush Limbaugh when he called their daughter the White House dog?); and b) LISTEN. Listen to voters who may not agree with you on every issue, listen to leaders who know more than you do, and above all, listen to your PR people. (I know I'm biased, but c'mon - we're professionals, and we can help you look your best if you will let us.) Fire the syncophants who kiss your ass and hire someone who's not afraid to tell you what you don't want to hear. And then trust that person.
All right, good luck.
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