Friday, November 5, 2010

Study proves that some people just don't get correlation vs. causality

A study by the National Forest Service found that neighborhoods with lots of trees have less crime! Hell yes! Let's plant some trees and watch our property crime disappear!

Ummmm, nope.

Let me say upfront that I have no idea what controls this survey used in order to ensure it indicates what it thinks it indicates, and there's always the UNC Geography Major caveat that comes whenever the media tries to report stats. That said, my first reaction on reading this was that the results were a little backward.

I say that because just last month I cut down a tree in front of my house because it blocked the street light that allows the whole neighborhood to see when Ted Bundy is trying to break into my house. (Don't get excited - it was a hideous deformed crepe myrtle, not a giant oak or anything.) I love living where I do, but it's just a fact that I live downtown where there's a lot of foot traffic and it's easy to, say, break into a car. Trees obscure sight lines, and better views tend to equal less petty crime, at least where I live.

Sure there might be a broken windows theory-type aspect, where lush foliage indicates that a neighborhood is better cared for and therefore less friendly to crime. But - at least the way it's being reported, this study says that merely having giant trees will deter crime. And I call BS. I need more before I conclude that more big trees = lower crime and not the other way around.

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